Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Turns out chickens aren't very smart.

I let the girls out this evening to see if they could figure out how to get back in their coop at dusk, which chickens are supposed to do. After about an hour of happy pecking in the yard (while I had a glass of wine and soaked my feet in the kiddy pool), they started a low peeping that got increasingly more urgent as the sun went down. They went over to their coop, then came back toward me, then went back to the coop, then came over to me again. If chickens could talk they would definitely have been saying "How the heck do we get back in the coop?" Well, you could go back in the way you came out, but I guess that's too obvious. I herded them over but they still couldn't figure out how to get in (and I have to say, in their defense, that the coop is backed up against some bushes so the door is kind of hidden; but they could have gone through the top, too, which was wide open...) Anyway, I was getting tired of the game, so I caught them all one by one and put them in. I wonder if they would have ever figured it out?

Dolley, the barred rock, is so tame that I can carry her around and pet her now. The other two are little more jumpy. I think Martha Washington, the golden-laced Wyandotte, is the dominant chicken, though it's hard to say. She keeps ruffling her feathers like you would think a dominant hen would do.

By the way, I have now informed all of my neighbors about the chicken project. Three of them were enthusiastic and one said "yuck," but I think she's coming around. (Interestingly, all of my neighbors are single women. Not that that has anything to do with chickens.)

Saturday, May 26, 2007

My parents asked me to post a recent photo of Melina on the blog, so here it is. This was taken at Wahclella Falls on Mother's Day/Jeff's Birthday.

Welcome, baby Rebekah!

Our friends Aaron & Brenda are the proud parents of the sweet little girl pictured here. She is a really adorable little thing, 7 lbs. 7 oz. at birth. Funny to think that she and Melina will probably end up being friends. Welcome Rebekah!

The chickens go out

Last week the chickens went on their first excursion out of the coop. This is a photo of them thinkng about leaving the coop, but not really doing it. The first day I decided to let them out, they all refused to go except Dolley, who then spent most of the time worriedly conversing with her sisters on the other side of the chickenwire. The next day I tried again and they all came out and spent a good hour wandering around the backyard in close formation. Molly and Amanda, our neighbors, were over, and Melina and Amanda played in the kiddie pool while the chickens pecked around them. Then Molly's husband showed up, and then the construction guy came to work on the garage, and then Jeff showed up - it was a regular party at the farm. I have to say it's pretty funny seeing three chickens running around in the backyard. All we need is a goat or a pony to complete the effect.

Boondang!

For several months now Melina has been really into construction equipment (I think it started when Jeff rented a little frontloader for the garage work). Now whenever she sees a construction crane or construction equipment of any kind she says "Boondang!" or maybe "Boomdang!" Now we're all in the habit of exclaiming "boondang!" whenever we go by a construction site.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Here's the daddy!

Lately Melina calls Jeff "the daddy." Yesterday when he drove up she yelled "Here's the daddy!" Sometimes she'll say "Where's the daddy? There it is!!" I can't correct her because it's just too freakin' cute.

Lately she's also been saying "songing" instead of "singing," as in "more songing?" She also has musical preferences already. We were on a car trip this weekend and when we'd put on music she'd say "different baby song? Different baby song?" She seems to know which music is "baby songs," but she prefers reggae over just about everything else.

She also says "yeah" to just about everything. You can ask her just about any question (Did you see Elvis at the playground today? Are you a Martian?) and she'll say "Yeah," in a really knowing way. It's hilarious.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Our family holiday

Yesterday for our family holiday (Mother's Day plus Jeff's birthday) we took a hike at Wahclella Falls, a pretty waterfall not too far from Portland. The first quarter mile is a nice wide, flat gravel path (probably an old road) that was perfect for a running toddler. Then the trail got more steep and narrow, with big drop-offs, and we had to force - er, put - Melina in the backpack. For about five minutes she kept up a steady "out! out!" interspersed with general whining. Then I gave her part of a chocolate energy bar, and she was content until we reached the falls. [This raises the question of how we will manage backpacking this summer. I think we all want to do it - even Melina, who gets excited about a hike - but we won't be able to go very far if Little Miss M refuses to go in the backpack herself.]

When we got to the end of the trail, we let Melina out so she could crawl around on the smooth river rocks by the creek. She and Jeff threw rocks into the water while I took pictures. What is it about little kids throwing rocks in the water? We went hiking with six (count 'em - SIX) little boys last weekend (OK, so one was two months old) - but their main interest was in throwing boulders down cliffs and into the river. That, and playing with toy swords. Melina isn't so much into dislodging boulders yet, but she really enjoys throwing rocks and making big splashes.

After the hike we went to McMenamins Edgefield for brunch. Our reservation was at 3:00 and we didn't get there until 3:30, but this ended up being a good thing because it meant we could sit outside on their beautiful lawn under the clearing afternoon sky. We had the outdoor tables almost to ourselves, and Melina enjoyed running around randomly with a piece of bacon in her hand. I took a little break from my diet and enjoyed a truly marvelous Belgian waffle and a couple of mimosas, along with other typical brunch options. Yum! Afterward, we toured the grounds, Melina climbed up and down stairs, and she and Jeff played chase in the herb garden. All in all, a lovely day.

Sunday, May 13, 2007

A room of her own

I am happy to report that Melina now has her very own bedroom. Until now, she has been sleeping first in our bed, then in a crib in our room, then in a crib in a nook off our bedroom. All of those arrangements meant that we had to be very quiet and very dark after 8:00 or so. Now Miss M is happily ensconced downstairs in our former guest room. I think we waited until just the right time to move here there. She's into the possessive stage, where she doesn't want anyone else to play with her toys (unless she gives them over herself). I think she likes the idea of having a room that's all hers. (Last week I made her a teepee out of a blanket and she pushed me out of it, saying "get out!" I didn't take it personally). She's transitioned really well. The first morning she woke up at 4:00 (and eventually ended up in our bed); the second morning she didn't wake up until her usual time. Today she woke up at 5:30 and I brought her in bed so we didn't have to go through a Monday-morning screamfest. I think she'll soon get used to waking up in her own room. Going to sleep there is no problem - she seems almost eager these days!

Octopus Jenny's Wind Energy Investment Report

(I did this research for a friend who was curious about wind energy investments. I'm not a pro; I just did this for fun and thought my other friends might be interested, so keep that in mind as you read...)

Wind power is the fastest growing energy source in the world. However, it is hard to invest in pure wind energy because many small companies are privately owned, most public companies are located in Europe, and the bigger companies (like GE) often do other things that progressive investors don't want to touch. (For example, GE Wind only makes up 1.5% of GE). Investing in wind energy is complex because wind companies range from turbine manufacturers (like Vestas) to parts manufacturers and utilities. In addition, the wind energy market in the U.S. depends on the existence of tax credits that serve as an incentive for wind developers and buyers.

Investing in Individual Stocks: Too hard, too risky for folks like us.


Aurora Investment News writes, "[This] kind of growth usually presents interesting opportunities for investors. But traders in the U.S. will find it frustrating to get in on it. The main reason is the mere absence of stocks available for U.S. investors."

Currently, most large, public wind energy companies are located in Europe (Denmark or Germany), and are listed on foreign stock exchanges. Germany has the largest wind market in the world.

Although there are two small U.S. based wind energy companies, they both have major drawbacks. U.S. Wind Farming (USWF.PK) is a penny stock that had a "nasty run-in" with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Western Wind Energy (WNDEF) is trading at $0.96 and has no apparent revenue.

According to Progressive Investor, the wind market is dominated by 10 major companies:

  • Vestas (VWSYF.PK) - Danish company. The world's largest wind turbine manufacturer. 34% of market. Considered a "good long term investment" by Progressive Investor. However, Vestas is not listed by Charles Schwab (see below).
  • Gamesa (GAM.MC) - Spanish company starting operations in the U.S. 18% of market. Considered a "good long term investment."
  • Enercon (ENDC.PK) - Germany company. 15% of market.
  • Nordex (NRDXF.PK) - Germany company. 2% of market. Considered a "good long term investment."
  • GE Wind. 11% of market. (Impossible to invest solely in this sector of GE).
  • Siemens. 6% of market. (Impossible to invest solely in this sector of Siemens).
  • Suzlon. 4% of market.
  • REpower. 3% of market. Considered a "good long term investment."
  • Mitsubishi. 2% of market.
  • Ecotecnia (Spain). 2% of market.
Other companies include:
  • NEG Micon (NEGMF.PK) - Danish company
  • Bonus (BONU.CO) - Danish company (appears to have been bought by Siemens)
  • Accionia (ANA.MC) - a wind developer. Considered a "good long term investment."
  • Novera (NVE.L) - a wind developer. Considered a "good long term investment."
  • Boralex (BLX-A.TO) - a wind developer. Considered a "good long term investment." Their website points to the Boralex Income Fund - worth looking into later.
  • Canadian Hydro Developers (KHD.TO) - an independent utility that develops and owns wind farms and market the electricity. Considered a "good long term investment."
  • Clipper. Considered a "good long term investment." (But shares are not currently available to US residents, even though they are located in California).
Since most of these are foreign companies, they must bought "over the counter" using "pink sheets." (See this for information on how to buy OTC stocks).

What are Pink Sheets?

From what I can tell, buying something on the "Pink Sheets" is like going into a dark alley to buy drugs. The "Pink Sheet" is an electronic system published by Pink Sheets LLC that lists penny stocks and other OTC securities. Apparently, it's where good companies go to die. Companies listed there do not have to fulfill any requirements (audits, etc.) like they do to be listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ. The SEC sees companies listed on Pink Sheets as "among the most risky investments" and advises potential investors to heavily research the companies in which they plan to invest. However, some reputable foreign companies (Heineken, Volkswagen, Nestle) are also listed on the pink sheets. ("While these are hardly fly-by-night businesses, investors should still take extra care, because European accounting and disclosure laws are different.")

From Wikipedia: "Buying Pink Sheets shares is supposed to be difficult; broker-dealers are enjoined to weed-out "widows and orphans" who may get an e-mail or word-of-mouth tip about a small stock." (Does that include us?)

To buy a stock from the Pink Sheets, you must get an account with a brokerage firm. Schwab does not sell Vestas stock. Other brokerage firms include E*Trade, Ameritrade, Accutrade, etc. (I briefly had some stocks through a broker and found that their fees were way, way too high to justify my small amount of stock.)

Cautions about Vestas (from Aurora Investment News, undated)

This year, [an analyst] estimates Vestas' revenue growth will slow to 6%... Vestas is also trying to broaden its reach into the U.S., winning a contract to supply Horizon Wind with 127 mills for the Wild Horse project in Washington state. Vestas is building a factory in China to supply the U.S. market.

While recent earnings have been stronger than analysts were expecting, Vestas still faces a number of obstacles ahead. ...The company faces quality problems in some of the turbines it recently shipped, it's suffering a supply bottleneck and component shortage among its suppliers, and competition is growing among Gamesa, GE Wind and New Dehli-based Suzlon.

"It will take time for Vestas to solve these problems," Frederiksen said, noting that the risks "are in our view not discounted in the currently high share price." Vestas' shares have only risen further since his report was issued last month.

Such caution is essential in a sector where certain growth attracts competitors who compete on price and innovation to gain an edge. A correction in Vestas' price might provide a good entry point should the company fix the problems facing it. That leaves Gamesa as the prime candidate for now.

Wind power is an industry that will continue to grow, if only because governments are willing to subsidize the technology as the only real viable alternative energy that can be easily deployed on a large scale. But extra caution is needed: Not only are most players based abroad, but the fortunes in the industry can change as fast as the wind itself.

Investing in Mutual Funds

I've found three mutual funds that invest in wind energy. There are probably more, but this is all I had time for for now.

Portfolio 21 (PORTX)

Portfolio 21 (PORTX) is a Portland-based socially responsible investment fund that focuses on energy. Three-year returns have been about 15% (though in 2006 they were 24%). PORTX's Morningstar rating is 3 stars (out of 5). Schwab lists it as "average return, above average risk." I generally try to pick stocks where the return is greater than the risk (using the simplified Schwab symbols), so this is not one I would normally pick. In addition, out of their top 10 holdings, only 4 seem to have anything to do with wind, though the other companies might be peripherally related to wind. (They include Staples, IBM, Nokia, Siemens, Canon, and others). Every holding is under 3%, so they must invest in a huge number of different companies, but I was disappointed to see that the majority of these are not directly related to wind power. This might be OK if you wanted a local, socially responsible fund with a decent return.

New Alternatives Fund (NALFX)

The New Alternatives Fund began operations in 1982 as "the first environmental mutual fund," and the first with a significant concentration in alternative energy. The Economist called it "the greenest fund in the U.S." Their list of investments is clearly focused on the alternative energy sector. (There is some hydro in there too). This fund has a front load, which means you pay up front when you buy it (max 4.75%). The Morningstar rating is 2 out of 5. Like PORTX, it's "average return, above average risk." In 2006, the fund grew 33%, which is great; so far this year it's grown about 16%. In 2002, it went *down* 30%. (Since inception, it's grown 10%). The Reuters site gives this mediocre ratings for returns and expenses. In general, this might be OK if you weren't trying to make a lot of money but wanted to get involved in alternative energy funds.

PowerShares

These include the CleanTech and WilderHill funds that I wrote about in the previous post. (I bought the Powershares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio yesterday and have already managed to lose $18 on it. But it's a bad day for the market).

So what to do?

At this point, I would say forget investing in individual wind power companies until more publicly traded companies are available in the US. You could try to go through a broker to buy Vestas or Gamena if you were really committed to buying wind power. Or you could just sign up to get wind energy at home through your local utility, which isn't exactly an investment, but it does support wind energy. It might be interesting to invest in one of the mutual funds or PowerShare stocks, but it would depend on whether you're doing it to earn a lot of money or just because you're excited about wind energy. Over time, of course, these may grow a lot, so perhaps it IS the right time to invest in them. But so far they haven't had spectacular returns.

Octopus Jenny's Alternative Energy Investment Report

My friend Tara has been, um, pestering me for a while to research alternative energy stocks for her, so I started looking into them last week when I had some time to spare. It was a lot more interesting than I thought it was going to be. I wrote up two reports for her (and other friends who are interested)... here they are.

Needless to say, I'm not a pro at this, and I mainly just wrote them for Tara, so if you invest in these and lose money, it's not my fault. That said, I have to say that my tiny little portfolio has been doing extremely well lately!

---------------------------

This morning I researched four solar power companies and three alternative energy indices:

First Solar (FSLR), MEMC Electronics (WFR), Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and Sunpower Corporation (SPWR). I also researched WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), Powershares CleanTeach ETF (PZD), and WilderHill Progressive Energy Portfolio ETF (PUW).

FYI, "ETFs are a rapidly growing class of low-cost index funds that trade like stocks. With the liquidity of stocks, they can be bought and sold throughout the market day and offer exposure to market, industry, sector, and asset indexes. ETFs enable traders to trade a group of stocks or bonds within a particular market sector by trading a single security. ETFs are automatically diversified equities, greatly reducing risk because there is minimal exposure to any one individual stock."

Here's what I found about each, along with my recommendation (which is mainly based on recommendations from Reuters, which provides really useful investment information). I also get information from Charles Schwab and other sites.

First Solar (FSLR). This company designs and manufactures solar modules using a thin film semiconductor technology. It has been around for just about a year, so it's quite risky. However, it has already expanded, is building a plant in Germany, and has long-term contracts with six suppliers in Europe. The product it creates is pretty cool - thin film solar panels - but it also has some really major competitors, like BP, Sanyo, Sharp, etc. The Reuters recommendation is OUTPERFORM, which means it's probably an OK time to buy. Not the best, but OK. I definitely wouldn't put many eggs into this basket, but it might be fun to invest a little and see how it does.

MEMC (WFR). MEMC makes silicon wafers for solar panels, semiconductors, and other uses. They have 50 years' experience making wafers, but have just started making solar wafers. They are a big company with revenues around $460 million. Reuters' consensus recommendation is OUTPERFORM. This seems pretty safe to me.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR). This company is a seller of weather-proof solar modules (the type of thing you might put on your house). This stock is very volatile, and they have a lot of huge competitors. The Reuters' recommendation is HOLD ( do not buy).

Sunpower (SPWR). This company "designs, develops, manufactures, markets and sells solar electric power products, systems and services." The interesting thing here is that Walmart is purchasing solar power from a subsidiary of this corporation as part of a pilot project to make 22 stores solar powered. (Its goal is to make 100% of stores solar powered.) So if they do go ahead with that, and use SunPower, then that is a huge plus for this stock. However, they also have a lot of big competitors. The Reuters recommendation is OUTPERFORM (OK to buy).

Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW). This is a diversified, small-cap fund that started in 2005. It includes stocks in MEMC, First Solar, Evergreen, and others. (80% of its holdings are "companies engaged in the business of the advancement of cleaner energy and conservation.") The growth chart for this isn't very smooth (there was a big surge of growth at the beginning of 2006, then a huge drop, but in general the fund is growing). Based on that, I think this would be good for the long term.

Powershares CleanTech ETF (PZD). This fund has only been around since October of 2006, and has grown about 10% since its inception. Its holdings are very similar to the one above (PBW). Since it's so new, I think I'd wait a while.

Wilderhill Progressive Energy ETF (PUW). This has also only been around since October of last year. It's grown 7% since then. This one focuses on the progressive energy business and has slightly different stocks than the other two.

In general, I'm not sure about the three ETFs. They are so new that it's hard to tell where they're going. On the other hand, this is a pretty new field, and is getting really big, so it might be a good time to invest a little and see where they go.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Melina being cute

Here's a video of Melina being cute. I think she was doing it on purpose. She was a little overtired, which usually sends her into hyper-cute, energetic, or fussy mode.


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Thursday, May 03, 2007

We have walls!

The garage is finally coming together. Last week the concrete slab was poured and the framers came and put up three walls. It looks like we actually will get a garage out of this! When the slab was poured, Teresa came over with her set of cement stamps and we wrote "Jeff build this garage [well, at least the foundation] with blood, sweat and tears in 2007-2008," plus our names (and Ollalie's). Then Melina walked around and left her mark in the wet cement (a little more than we were planning on). This week Jeff is working on ordering trusses for the roof, and next week we should see more progress. Then it will be up to Jeff to do the finishing.

Here are some photos:





Fresh from the farm

We've signed up to split a "harvest box" with our neighbors Molly & Trent. That means that every week we get a box of vegetables, fruits, and flowers fresh from Sungold Farm in Forest Grove. The deliveries start in June, so we haven't gotten one yet, but I'm excited. I'll have to come up with new ways to prepare vegetables (which will be good for me, since I'm not a huge vegetable fan). They have an open house in June, as well, so it will be fun to show Melina where our food is grown. Probably a little early for her to really understand it, but what the hey. I like the thought of getting fresh eggs from our backyard and fresh fruits and vegetables from a neighboring farm.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Zoning with the hens

I spent about half an hour today just watching the chickens. It's so.... relaxing. Here, you can try.

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The one who keeps staring at the camera is Martha, a golden-laced Wyandotte; the small one near the back is Dolley, a barred Plymouth Rock; and the black and white one who just appears at the beginning of the clip is Abigail, a silver-laced Wyandotte.

Weight Watchers

I've been doing Weight Watchers for the last month and a half because I needed to lose some baby weight (and pre-baby weight) that was hanging around far too long. So far, I've lost 8 pounds and one clothing size, and I've convinced a few other people to do the same. I always had sort of negative feelings about WW - it sounded so cheesy and bourgeois - that is, middle class and boring. But hey, it WORKS! I've been using their online program (no meetings), and have been very impressed. In general, I've been losing about a pound a week, which is a very healthy rate. (The first week I lost four pounds, which is not unusual at the beginning; last week I gained 2/10ths of a pound because I was taking a little vacation from the diet, which involved eating a lot of cake and German sausages).

At times, it has been a challenge. On the first afternoon I had a little temper tantrum and railed against living my life according to the dictates of a multinational corporation - how dare they tell me what I could eat? But then I went out and bought a bunch of healthy snacks (vitally important) and things got a little more rational. I had to deal with some serious hunger pangs, lightheadedness, and a general hunger-induced daze during the first two weeks, but now my body seems to have adjusted, though I still have occasional hungry days. I also have a big incentive to work out, because the more you work out, the more you can eat.

Of course, maintaining the weight loss will be a challenge. There's lots of information out there about how most people who lose weight gain it back. I know people who have gained it back, but I also know people who have lost it for good. And since my weight gain was the result of a) pregnancy b) liking dessert too much and c) a sedentary job, I think I will be able to keep it off with some minor lifestyle changes. I don't seem to have major psychological issues around food; I don't eat when I'm stressed or when I'm bored. I just like it a lot. Especially cake.